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European Urology

European Urology

Volume 49, issue 3, pages 415-594, March 2006

[Editorial Comments by E. Solsona, by P.I. Karakiewicz, by M.S. Soloway and by H. Barton Grossman]

Predicting Recurrence and Progression in Individual Patients with Stage Ta T1 Bladder Cancer Using EORTC Risk Tables: A Combined Analysis of 2596 Patients from Seven EORTC Trials fx1

Richard J. Sylvester, Adrian P.M. van der Meijden, Willem Oosterlinck, J. Alfred Witjes, Christian Bouffioux, Louis Denis, Donald W.W. Newling and Karlheinz Kurth

Accepted 14 December 2005, Published online 17 January 2006, pages 466 - 477


Abstract

Objectives

To provide tables that allow urologists to easily calculate a superficial bladder cancer patient's short- and long-term risks of recurrence and progression after transurethral resection.

Methods

A combined analysis was carried out of individual patient data from 2596 superficial bladder cancer patients included in seven European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer trials.

Results

A simple scoring system was derived based on six clinical and pathological factors: number of tumors, tumor size, prior recurrence rate, T category, carcinoma in situ, and grade. The probabilities of recurrence and progression at one year ranged from 15% to 61% and from less than 1% to 17%, respectively. At five years, the probabilities of recurrence and progression ranged from 31% to 78% and from less than 1% to 45%.

Conclusions

With these probabilities, the urologist can discuss the different options with the patient to determine the most appropriate treatment and frequency of follow-up.

Keywords: Superficial bladder cancer, Prognostic factors, Recurrence, Progression, Cystectomy, Prediction.


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